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The latest report issued by European-based foreign investors: iPhone 3D VCSEL order market share decreased
European-based foreign investors have released a new report on Wen Mao (3105), highlighting a significant shift in the market dynamics of iPhone 3D VCSEL orders. According to the analysis, the company's market share for these components is expected to decline sharply from 85% in 2017 to just 45% by 2019. This change is attributed to Apple’s evolving design strategy, with the back-end 3D sensing system becoming more prominent starting in 2019. As a result, Finisar is likely to emerge as the primary supplier for the rear-end 3D VCSEL, which could indirectly impact Wen Mao’s operational stability.
In response to this shift, European investors have downgraded their rating of Wen Mao from "neutral" to "inferior to the market." The target price has also been adjusted downward, from 270 yuan to 205 yuan. This downgrade reflects growing concerns over Wen Mao’s long-term growth prospects in the VCSEL sector.
The impact of this news was immediately felt in the stock market. On the day of the report, Wen Mao’s shares opened with volatility and later dropped over 5.7%, reaching 253.5 yuan midday. This sharp decline underscores investor anxiety about the company’s future performance.
According to the report, while the iPhone models released in the second half of 2018 will still rely on front-end 3D sensing technology, the new designs in 2019 will switch to a rear-mounted 3D camera system. This design change is expected to significantly reduce Wen Mao’s market share in iPhone-related VCSEL orders.
However, the report also notes that there are opportunities for Wen Mao in the Android market. More and more smartphone manufacturers are adopting similar 3D sensing technologies, providing Wen Mao with potential for rapid growth. That said, increased competition from integrated component manufacturers is expected to pose challenges in the coming years.
Another key point highlighted in the report is the improvement in epitaxial wafer quality. While only 40-50% of the usable area of current VCSEL wafers meets Apple’s standards—leading to higher processing demands—ongoing advancements in yield and uniformity are expected to reduce these requirements over time. This development could have a broader impact on the entire supply chain.
Finally, the report states that due to concerns over declining VCSEL sales, European investors have revised their earnings estimates for Wen Mao. The 2018 earnings per share forecast has been lowered by 7–11%, with an estimated value of around 12.4 yuan. For 2019, the projected earnings per share have fallen further to 15 yuan. These revisions reflect a more cautious outlook on the company’s financial performance moving forward.