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Analysis of the development trend of the automotive power battery industry in three aspects
Power batteries are at the center of attention, whether used in electric vehicles or energy storage systems. However, their most critical application lies in the automotive industry. This article will explore the development trends of the power battery industry from three key perspectives.
First, let's look at the background of power battery development. Globally, hybrid vehicles have already reached industrialization, while plug-in and pure electric vehicles are currently in the promotion phase. Fuel cell vehicles are still in the demonstration stage. However, it is expected that plug-in and pure electric vehicles will see rapid growth by 2020, with fuel cell vehicles gaining significant traction by 2030.
In China, the new energy vehicle industry has established a relatively complete research and development and industrial system. A wide range of products have been successfully launched in the market. Globally, China accounts for over 50% of new energy vehicle sales. The country has also made long-term plans for the future development of new energy vehicles. According to the "Long-term Development Plan for the Automobile Industry" released in 2017, China aimed to reach 2 million units in production and sales of new energy vehicles by 2020, and by 2025, new energy vehicles were expected to account for more than 20% of total automobile sales.
By 2020, the total number of energy-saving and new energy vehicles is expected to reach 5 million. Based on current trends, achieving these targets seems feasible. In this context, both domestic and international research on the key components of new energy vehicles—particularly power batteries—has been well planned. Major developed countries, such as Japan, the U.S., Germany, and South Korea, have made detailed R&D plans for power batteries, covering materials, system integration, standardization, and next-generation technologies.
Second, the current status and future trends of power battery technology. Today, there are higher expectations for batteries, aiming to compete with traditional fuel vehicles. Key performance metrics include energy density, power density, safety, cycle life, fast charging capability, temperature range, and cost. While achieving all of these remains challenging, progress is being made through collective efforts.
Lithium-ion batteries remain a hot topic in research and development. Whether focusing on materials or system integration, safety continues to be a top priority. However, lithium-ion batteries have seen significant improvements in energy density, power density, lifespan, and cost control, making them a superior alternative to lead-acid batteries. Government support through five-year plans has accelerated the technological advancement of power batteries.
The development of power battery technology is closely tied to national strategies. With a focus on full-electric drive, lithium-ion batteries are evolving toward high-quality products, requiring gradual changes in material systems. China has already started investing in solid-state battery research, with many universities and institutions making notable progress.
Driven by government subsidies, China’s power battery industry is growing rapidly. Subsidies are primarily based on energy density. For example, lithium iron phosphate batteries now reach 150 Wh/kg, qualifying for a 1.2% subsidy. By 2018, this was expected to rise to 160–170 Wh/kg, and by 2019, up to 180 Wh/kg.
For ternary materials, energy density ranges from 120–250 Wh/kg. Buses can use 120 Wh/kg, while passenger cars require around 230 Wh/kg. Increasing energy density, especially through subsidies, indirectly promotes advancements in vehicle technology.
Third, the current state and future direction of the power battery industry. Currently, power batteries are mainly concentrated in East Asia. Globally, Japan leads in technology, while China has made remarkable progress. It is believed that within the next three to five years, China’s battery technology could become the best in the world.
China has over 200 companies producing power batteries, making it the largest producer globally. Industrial investment in this sector is also growing rapidly. Hardware costs per watt-hour have dropped significantly, with China reaching about 3–4 cents per watt-hour. Further capacity expansion could reduce this even more.
From an industrial chain perspective, China has built one of the most comprehensive battery supply chains, particularly in regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. Many companies in Taizhou are actively working on battery industrialization, creating regional competitive advantages.
Finally, power batteries are mainly applied in four key areas: A-class pure electric mini-cars, B-class plug-in hybrid vehicles, C-class commercial electric buses, and D-class 40V hybrid or micro-hybrid vehicles. Low-speed electric vehicles represent a large market for power batteries, with millions sold annually in China.
In addition, two key issues must be addressed: technical development and industrial level. At the technical level, safety should be the main focus, balancing energy density, power density, cycle life, and cost. Automation in production can improve battery consistency, while better system design can accelerate development and industrialization.
At the industrial level, the government should promote standardized development to enhance high-quality production capacity and ensure coordinated growth across the supply chain. For enterprises, it is essential to plan for both subsidized and non-subsidized scenarios, adapting to evolving technical and industry routes.