Gong Weibin: Fast cycle brings high risks to the industry

On the morning of September 13, 2013, the “2013 China LED Lighting Industry New Pattern and New Growth Shenzhen Summit” jointly sponsored by Gaogong LED and Huizhou Zhongkai High-tech Industrial Development Zone was successfully held in the banquet hall on the third floor of Kempinski Hotel Shenzhen. More than 110 LED CEOs from Shenzhen, Huizhou, Zhongshan and other regions participated in the summit.

Dr. Zhang Xiaofei, Chairman of Gaogong LED, Deputy Secretary of Huizhou Zhongkai High-tech Industrial Development Zone Committee, Yang Pengfei, Director of Management Committee, Gong Weibin, Chairman of Ruifeng Optoelectronics, Lu Weidong, General Manager of Yuanhui Optoelectronics China, and Executive Vice President of Shenzhen Research Institute of Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Li Shizhen and others are focusing on the current dilemma and positioning of LED enterprises in the Pearl River Delta region under the integration of the industrial chain, the current status and future development planning of the LED industry in Huizhou, the investment strategy and development of the new era in the era of overcapacity, and the export and sales of LED lighting enterprises. The five hot topics of the future LED lighting new technology and other key topics were launched.

Since the first half of this year, despite the signs of recovery in the domestic LED lighting market, the overcapacity situation in the entire industry is still continuing. Gong Weibin, chairman of Ruifeng Optoelectronics, pointed out at this summit that the current overcapacity in the LED industry is ostensibly an absolute surplus in general understanding, but in fact it is more structural excess caused by the misalignment between supply and demand. .

"This relative surplus is mainly divided into three aspects: structural excess, cyclical excess and potential excess. Specifically, it is manifested by the current product positioning and market demand mismatch, backward overcapacity and insufficient advanced capacity; investment The production cycle is ahead of the market demand cycle; the impact of technological evolution on the industrial form may turn the existing production capacity into backward production capacity.” Gong Weibin believes that the LED industry is currently in the fast cycle market stage, at this stage, the industry's growth rate and technology. The diffusion rate is faster, but the product renewal cycle is short, and the advantages of the technology creators are often unsustainable.

In addition, Gong Weibin also said that between 2012 and 2020, the cost of LED light source products still has more than six times the price reduction space, the introduction of cost pressure, new materials, new equipment related industries (such as microelectronics, etc.) It will have a huge impact on the traditional LED light source industry form and product form, which will lead to the risk of potential overcapacity.

However, Gong Weibin believes that overcapacity in the LED industry brings a series of risks, but also brings new opportunities for industry mergers and acquisitions integration and industrial technology upgrades, and the current overcapacity will remain in an acceptable state. The trend is to enter the slow cycle market. “In this process, companies with strategic vision, technological leadership, efficiency leadership, and flexibility will eventually win.”

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