How amazing is Bitcoin mining power consumption? Far more than all electric vehicles in the world

1. In the first quarter, the mainland mining chip segment accounted for 10% of TSMC's revenue, doubling from previous levels. According to micro-network news, TSMC is set to hold a legal briefing on the 18th. U.S. foreign investment estimates that TSMC’s revenue in the first quarter of this year will decline by 6% to 8%, which is slightly better than market expectations, but annual growth remains modest. The report maintains a "neutral" rating.

According to the latest research report from U.S. foreign investment, Bitcoin mining specialized application chips (ASICs) now make up about 10% of TSMC's revenue, nearly doubling from approximately 5% in the last quarter of the previous year. While the first-quarter revenue is expected to decrease by 6% to 8%, this is better than the anticipated 10% drop, and the gross profit margin for the quarter is expected to remain around 50%.

However, U.S. foreign investment notes that smartphone semiconductors still contribute roughly 50% of TSMC’s total revenue. Given the conservative nature of related industries, TSMC may forecast an annual revenue growth of 5% to 10% in U.S. dollars. However, due to exchange rate fluctuations, the growth in New Taiwan Dollars could be more moderate.

Mizuho’s recent report highlighted that TSMC’s third-quarter financial results mentioned sales of $300 million to $400 million from virtual currency and AI-related products. In the fourth quarter, growth in this sector appears to have accelerated significantly.

Taking Bitcoin as an example, a neutral estimate suggests that TSMC could see an average of 18 to 20 million ASIC units per month. This volume would provide long-term benefits for TSMC’s operations.

Currently, the top three digital currency mining machine manufacturers are based in China, including Bitmain’s Antminer, Canaan’s Avalon, and Yibang Technology’s Wing. Canaan estimated that it would pay TSMC around 500 million yuan in 2017, reflecting the strong demand for mining chips.

2. How far has the Bitcoin mining or chip production industry gone?

The rising popularity of blockchain has led to a surge in blockchain-related stocks on the A-share and New Third Board markets. Currently, there are over 30 A-share blockchain concept stocks, while companies like Caima Network (430361), Taiyiyun (430070), Jinqiu (837901), and Huazheng (833166) are also actively entering the blockchain field.

In addition, the Digging Shell Network found that a “regular army” of blockchain investors has already targeted the New Third Board market. One such company submitted a listing application to the stock transfer system on August 30, 2017, and is currently under review.

This company is one of the top three Bitcoin mining chip manufacturers in China—Hangzhou Canaan Zhizhi Information Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Canaan Zhizhi").

Performance driven by individual clients

The Bitcoin industry chain includes upstream hardware manufacturers (such as chips and mining equipment), midstream accounting and verification services (Bitcoin production), and downstream transaction and payment industries. Canaan Zhizhi plays a key role in the upstream supply chain, producing the core chips used in Bitcoin mining machines.

As Bitcoin gained popularity, Canaan Zhizhi saw significant performance growth. In 2015, the company generated revenue of 55.173 million yuan and net profit of 2.453 million yuan. By 2016, revenue had jumped to 316 million yuan, with net profit reaching 58.066 million yuan. In the first four months of 2017, revenue was 255 million yuan, and net profit was 32.693 million yuan.

China leads global Bitcoin mining, accounting for 80% of total production. As of April 2017, Canaan Zhizhi had sold approximately 160,000 Avalon series mining machines, representing 22% of the global Bitcoin computing market.

The nature of mining means that Canaan Zhizhi's customer base is largely composed of individuals. Out of its 400 customers, only Guangzhou Jiesai and Tianjin Garment Import & Export engage in resale. The rest are individual customers, with over 97% located in China.

The Bitcoin mining industry is being heavily promoted, but it carries significant risks. Since 2013, the Chinese central bank and other ministries issued a notice warning of Bitcoin risks, stating that it is not a legal currency and lacks official backing. Although some countries like Germany and Japan have recognized Bitcoin, in China, its status remains uncertain.

In August 2017, regulatory actions targeting virtual currency exchanges began. ICOINFO, a domestic ICO platform, announced it would suspend all ICO activities. Following regulatory guidance, it pledged to operate in compliance with new rules.

On September 4, the central bank and seven other ministries banned ICO transactions, leading to the shutdown of major platforms like Bitcoin China, Firecoin.com, and OKCoin Bank. China effectively ended its Bitcoin exchange era.

With the crackdown on exchanges, the next target is likely to be Bitcoin mining. On January 3, media reported that the central bank held a closed meeting to shut down Bitcoin mines within a specific timeframe. Subsequently, the Securities Times stated that domestic Bitcoin mines would not face blanket closures but would instead undergo targeted regulation.

Bitcoin regulation is tightening, but how much of TSMC’s revenue comes from China, where 99% of Bitcoin mining occurs? The answer remains unclear.

3. How impressive is Bitcoin mining power consumption? It exceeds the total electricity use of all electric vehicles worldwide.

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