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The key turning point of the photovoltaic industry will be how to "break the butterfly"?
The photovoltaic industry has shown remarkable performance in the renewable energy sector. Supported by a series of government policies, the sector has made significant progress and achieved substantial growth. According to data, the newly added photovoltaic capacity has surpassed that of wind power for the second consecutive year. As the industry matures, new challenges have emerged, requiring continuous innovation and strategic adaptation.
In recent years, with the completion and commissioning of numerous large-scale photovoltaic projects, China’s PV industry has continued to innovate and upgrade its technology. In 2017, the National Energy Administration issued a notice promoting the implementation of the "Leader of Photovoltaic Power Generation" plan and setting requirements for the construction of leading bases. The goal of this initiative is to advance photovoltaic technology, promote industrial upgrades, enhance market applications, and reduce costs.
China’s photovoltaic industry is now at a crucial turning point, shifting toward high efficiency and quality. In the coming years, the industry will accelerate the commercialization of technological achievements, phase out outdated technologies and capacities, and move closer to the target of affordable solar electricity by 2020.
According to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, from January to September 2017, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached approximately 42 GW, a nearly 60% increase compared to the same period in 2016. Distributed installations alone reached 15 GW, showing a more than 300% year-on-year growth. This rapid development has played a key role in driving China’s energy structure toward greener and lower-carbon solutions. Additionally, the surge in new capacity has kept prices of polysilicon and related supply chains high, while many listed photovoltaic companies reported improved financial performance.
Despite these positive trends, the industry still faces major challenges. Issues such as curtailment of solar energy, delayed subsidies, technological bottlenecks, and financing difficulties continue to hinder sustainable growth. These problems require urgent attention and coordinated policy support.
Currently, the rate of solar curtailment remains high in China, especially in the northwest region, where demand for electricity is low. In 2016, the northwest region wasted over 7.04 billion kWh of solar energy, with a curtailment rate of 19.81%. Xinjiang and Gansu had rates exceeding 29%. Meanwhile, the eastern regions are experiencing growing energy demand, which has led to an increase in distributed and rooftop photovoltaic installations. As a result, the focus of photovoltaic projects is gradually shifting eastward, creating regional imbalances that affect long-term planning and strategy.
The Chinese photovoltaic industry started later than other countries, and its technology is still evolving. High electricity generation costs remain a challenge, compounded by non-technical expenses such as land rent, grid connection fees, labor costs, and financing. Although technological advances have helped reduce electricity prices, they are not enough to offset these rising costs. Government subsidies currently play a critical role in supporting investment in the sector.
Long-term industry development depends on accelerating technological innovation. Innovation is essential for building a modern economic system, and strong technology is the foundation for success in a competitive market. Timely subsidy disbursement and smooth cash flow for power plants are also vital for current operations. Simplifying the subsidy process could further facilitate project development and support company growth.
Financing remains a major challenge due to the high capital requirements and long payback periods in the photovoltaic industry. Especially for distributed projects, securing funding is difficult. To address this, the industry must speed up mergers and acquisitions, eliminate inefficient production, and enhance concentration. Encouraging industrialization and marketization will help cultivate strong, competitive enterprises.
Looking ahead, the photovoltaic industry will develop in multiple dimensions, with increased cross-industry integration. It will be integrated with sectors like poverty alleviation, agriculture, climate, and environmental protection, enhancing its scalability and impact. The expansion along the entire value chain is also becoming a trend, driven by growing downstream demand. Upstream industries, such as silicon wafers and solar modules, have seen significant production increases.
With the rise of the “Internet Plus†era, high-precision manufacturing of crystalline silicon, high-efficiency photovoltaic equipment, and micro-grid systems will become key areas for future innovation and development.
As technology continues to advance, the integration of energy storage and photovoltaics, improvements in power transmission and distribution, and reductions in both electricity costs and curtailment rates are expected to boost the profitability of power generation companies and reduce their reliance on government support. According to forecasts by the European JRC, by 2030, renewables will account for more than 30% of the global energy mix, with solar photovoltaics contributing over 10% of total electricity. The strategic importance of the photovoltaic industry in the energy sector is set to grow significantly, positioning it as a key pillar of future energy systems.