[Source: "High-tech LED - Technology and Applications" December issue]
Some time ago, Xiaobian saw a microblog about the Chinese and Jewish business, and was very touched. The content is this: a Jewish person opened a gas station in a place, the business was particularly good, the second Jew came to open a restaurant, the third Jew opened a supermarket, and then the area became bustling It is. The difference is that the first Chinese came to open a gas station, the business is particularly good, the second Chinese will definitely open a second gas station, the third, fourth ... to the end evolved into vicious competition Everyone has no fun.
The Jews made the ultimate in innovation, and the Chinese made the imitation the ultimate.
Now the entire LED industry is talking about overcapacity. I think the problem reflected by this Weibo is very relevant to the current LED industry. Fei Ge once said at the 13th National LED Industry Development and Technology Seminar held recently that due to factors such as capital and market, most of the epitaxial chip companies with only about 10 MOCVD are currently at a loss or even shelved. Discontinued state, it is expected that there will be less than 10 LED epitaxial chip companies in China next year.
According to a report released by the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute (GLII), the number of MOCVD equipment used in the LED industry in China in 2012 reached 917, an increase of 114 units. In the first three quarters of this year, the average operating rate of MOCVD equipment in China was 58.4%, and the capacity utilization rate was about 30.1%. The domestic chip output has only increased by 20%, the sapphire price has fallen by 35%, the chip price has fallen by 32% year-on-year, and the price has fallen the most.
The government "guides consumption" to talk about, but I don't think this is the core factor. The "follow the wind" of investors has played a big role in it, just like the Chinese people who open gas stations in Weibo. From the theory, it is not difficult to reason, talk about investment, talk about production capacity, talk about everything back to the final point of origin is capital, investors most value is the return on investment. If you buy an apple for 10 yuan, the government now tells you that you can subsidize 5 yuan, which means that the investment amount will be cut in half. I want to seduce which investors are not willing to squeeze in?
Perhaps everyone will wonder why another billion-dollar LED display company that closed down some time ago, one of the "heavyweight" creditors turned out to be a display chip manufacturer. From a common sense, the LED display is in the downstream, directly over the midstream manufacturers to get goods upstream, and also "truthful", we have to reflect on the market in the end.
If you think about it carefully, there is nothing to worry about. Since the beginning of this year, there are only a handful of LED listed companies in China, and their accounts receivable have risen steadily. No one can tell when it will be recovered. After the listing of Nanda Optoelectronics, it immediately changed its face. From this, we can see that many companies are not doing anything new in order to maintain sales growth and use long-term lending. In the face of the current industry downturn, listed companies have to lower their stance. As long as the product can be sold, the low price and long return period are not the focus. MOCVD equipment used by upstream manufacturers, even if they are not produced, must be air-conditioned and filled with nitrogen, because once the production is stopped, the cost is more.
The actual demand scale and the upside of production capacity directly lead to a sharp decline in product prices. Xiaobian often hears some companies complain that the price of sapphire film has dropped to about US$6. Compared with the US$8 at the beginning of the year, we canâ€™t imagine whether itâ€™s still There is profit at all. Although the cost control of each company is different, it is generally believed that 7 dollars is already the reserve price.
There is an old saying: "Buy the essence that has never been sold", jump out and think about it, who is the smartest person?
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