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The industry strategy LED industry is currently at the bottom, and the operating rate of the peak leading enterprises that experienced production release is still high, which means that the high-end demand remains stable; In 2013, it will enter a high-speed growth period. It is expected that policies will be introduced and orders will be released in the second quarter of next year. From the perspective of the industry chain, we believe that the downstream response will be earlier than the upstream.
From the performance elasticity of the recommended combination, we believe that OEM companies have greater flexibility in the initial stage of LED lighting startup. It is recommended to pay attention to Chau Ming Technology and Ruifeng Optoelectronics. From the perspective of benefit from the policy, we believe that high-power LED drive power supply companies have better certainty. Sex, it is recommended to pay attention to Mosuo Power; from the perspective of concentration, we believe that the leading enterprises of the chip industry will benefit from the upgrading of the industry, and we recommend focusing on Sanan Optoelectronics.
The industry expansion point of view has come to an end. The production capacity is in the process of gradual digestion. After the peak of the LED chip segment experiencing capacity expansion, the leading companies are still fully loaded and the profitability is stable. We believe that the backlight supports the basic needs of the industry, and it took around 1 year. As the time's capacity is digested, the risk of future capacity release has been reduced. With the start of LED lighting in the future, leading companies are expected to enter the next round of expansion cycle in the second half of 2013.
Economic, policy and corporate promotion accelerate the popularization of LED lighting, and it is expected to welcome the release of policies and orders in the second quarter. From the perspective of economy, the economical efficiency of LED lighting in the outdoor and indoor commercial areas has been highlighted, and the power-saving efficiency has reached 70%; In terms of policy, in the first half of the year, policies for promoting LED lighting were introduced at both the national and local levels; at the enterprise level, the sales pattern of sitting stores has entered the stage of channel distribution; and from the perspective of the policy implementation cycle, we believe that the policy is expected to usher in the second quarter of next year. The peak of release and order release.
The lighting application segment OEM and power supply companies took the lead to benefit: At present, the technology and design of LED lighting products are mature. Through the channel promotion stage, we believe that in the initial stage of the industry startup, OEM companies will be the first in the industry, and channel and brand building will be the key to long-term competitiveness. However, for government-led outdoor lighting, although it is deterministic, competition and local protection will cause orders to be dispersed, and higher concentration of driving power will benefit more.
LED backlighting is still the best investment option in the packaging industry: despite the low concentration and intense competition in the packaging industry, a relatively stable competitive landscape has emerged in the field of small-size and TV backlighting, and barriers to technologies and supply chains have also excluded latecomers. , We believe that TV backlighting LED packaging companies will still benefit from the supply chain reorganization after the TV manufacturers' backlight modules are self-manufactured, while small-sized backlighting companies will enjoy the last chance for the rapid growth of smartphones and tablet PCs.
LED chip link pattern is established, attention to Dachang capacity building: the current domestic LED chip competition has been initially established, the cancellation of equipment subsidies and the establishment of the leading new entrants will be reduced, the lack of technology accumulation of SMEs and invalid production capacity will be completely withdrawn We believe that the industry will enter the integration stage.
The competitive landscape of MO sources is stable and the price is close to the bottom: MO sources are out of supply. The price decline has caused the market to shrink this year, but we think the price is now close to the bottom, and the new entrants will have an impact on the existing competition pattern under the current prices. Limited; long-term demand for trimethyl gallium and other MO sources will continue to grow steadily with the increasing demand for LED chips. We believe that the start of the LED lighting market is expected to drive the expected price increase of MO sources.