Japan Nuclear Crisis Causes Global Energy Change

Recently, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council presided over the executive meeting and repeatedly emphasized that “nuclear power development should put safety first” and stated clearly that “stricken approval of new nuclear power projects, adjustment and improvement of nuclear power development mid- and long-term planning, nuclear safety planning approval Before, suspend approval of nuclear power projects."

"Adjustment of planning means changes in the pace of development of the whole industry." An industry source stated that the construction of inland nuclear power plants may be stagnant, and the goal of the mid- and long-term development of nuclear power development that has just been increased to 86 million kilowatts may be reduced.

Although some experts believe that the development of nuclear power is still a long-term energy development trend, the alternative energy sector represented by wind power, water power, and photovoltaic has begun to stir up, bringing out new market conjectures on the global energy structure.

The aftershocks of China’s nuclear power emergency were delayed on the 16th, and the Ministry of Environmental Protection issued the “Provisions on Environmental Radiation Protection for Nuclear Power Plants”. The regulations require that nuclear power plants, including nuclear power plants, must consider the environmental characteristics around the sites such as geology, earthquakes, etc. in the area where the site is located. Before a nuclear power plant operates, environmental radiation monitoring must be started. It is understood that the provisions will be implemented on September 1 this year.

"The main policy-affected areas are the proposed projects. Due to the suspension of the approval of nuclear power projects before the approval of nuclear safety planning, it will bring great uncertainty to the follow-up progress." Chief Analysis of CITIC Securities' Power Equipment and New Energy Industry Teacher Yang Fan pointed out that this made the nuclear power development plan that had just been upgraded to 86 million kilowatts last year faced great changes.

It is understood that in order to achieve the goal of increasing non-fossil energy share to 15% by 2020, relevant departments last year adjusted the "National Nuclear Power Medium and Long Term Development Plan" to a target of 86 million kilowatts, which is double the 2007 target. the above.

This degree has sounded an assembly number for the development of nuclear power around the country. Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, and Anhui have begun planning their nuclear power projects, including the Hunan Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Plant, the Hubei Daxie Nuclear Power Plant and the Jiangxi Pengze Nuclear Power Plant.

However, as soon as the State Council's new decision came to an end, the prospects of a number of nuclear power plants that were in the process of being officially approved for the spurt period were worrisome. Experts from the Nuclear Energy Association revealed that “I am afraid we will wait until the relevant nuclear safety plan is issued before we can take further actions.” and other motions. For many years, the construction of inland nuclear power plants can only be halted.

The case of cold global nuclear power falling into the ice, a kind of new energy known as the direction of future development, was once the object of development of all countries. It is understood that nuclear energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity supply, and Japan has more than 30%. The world’s best-developed nuclear power industry in France uses 78% of its electricity.

In the face of Japan's nuclear crisis accident, all countries in the world appear to be less calm. Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, said that under the nuclear leakage incident in Japan, “the originally loosened nuclear energy policy would have to be tightened again”.

On the 14th, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced plans to suspend the extension of the nuclear power plant operating period last year for three months. On the 15th, Merkel announced once again that it will temporarily shut down seven nuclear power plants that were put into operation in Germany before 1980, and at the same time conduct safety inspections on all nuclear power plants; Finland also decided to conduct a full-scale safety inspection of the national nuclear power plants; Switzerland suspended domestic nuclear power station updates Transformation plan; Venezuela will suspend the construction plan of a nuclear power plant; Britain's current plans for the construction of 10 new nuclear power plants may also be shelved; India has also begun to review the existing nuclear energy development plan.

Industry insiders believe that the nuclear crisis in Japan has caused public anxiety about nuclear safety. After the Sanli River nuclear power accident in the United States, almost no new nuclear power plants were built even for 30 years.

According to Hong Yuan, a researcher at the American Academy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and secretary general of the Arms Control and Proliferation Center, Japan originally planned to account for 40% of the electricity supply by 2020. After this nuclear leakage accident, it may be obvious that the share of nuclear power in the future It is expected that nuclear power planning in other countries will also be affected by this incident.

Reverting to photovoltaic power generation or springtime industry experts pointed out that if the plan of the State Council Executive Meeting is truly implemented, the domestic power energy structure will probably change. Thermal power and hydropower will still be the main force of power supply, while wind power, hydropower and solar energy Other new energy sources will be greatly developed.

It is understood that in the current power structure, China's thermal power generation accounts for about 83% of the total electricity supply, and hydropower, wind power and solar energy account for about 12%. Although the installed capacity of nuclear power is only about 10 million kilowatts, which is about 4% of one-time energy, up to now, the State Council has approved 34 nuclear power generating units with an installed capacity of 36.92 million kilowatts, of which 25 units and 27.73 million kilowatts have been under construction. According to the nuclear power related planning, by 2020, China's installed nuclear power capacity will reach more than 80 million kilowatts, and the proportion of nuclear power in the entire power industry will reach about 7%.

However, the accidents caused by the nuclear crisis in Japan have caused a great deal of public opinion about nuclear safety, which may trigger a shift in national energy policies. Experts pointed out that due to the nuclear leakage incident in Japan, the scale of nuclear power projects in China and the construction speed of nuclear power plants may slow down, and the development of new energy such as hydropower, wind power, and photovoltaics will receive further attention. Although photovoltaic power costs are higher than nuclear power, there is no potential danger like nuclear leakage. However, the development costs of new energy such as hydropower and wind power are extremely low, and the construction period of wind power is relatively short. It is expected that wind power construction and development will accelerate in the future.

Analysts from Guojin Securities pointed out that currently from a policy point of view, foreign countries’ suppression of nuclear power installation plans cannot be avoided for the time being, and China’s cautious attitude towards nuclear power planning may also be further strengthened; this accident will affect the future development of new energy sources. The structure will have a big impact, and the expectations for new energy such as photovoltaic, wind power, and hydropower will be further enhanced.