Solar Smile Curve Announces PV Failure List

It will deteriorate again next year and announce the coming year. It will be the time for the industry to reshuffle! The fourth quarter has always been the off-season of solar installations. Next, it will be more than enough cash for each solar cell plant to survive.

The price of solar energy products is like a slippery slide, and it will deteriorate again next year. It is announced that in the coming year, it will be the time for the industry to reshuffle!

A solar energy "smile curve" predicts that Taiwan's solar cell and module industry will be the world's solar energy industry in the cold winter, facing the pressure of the largest group of closed down!

The Taiwan International Solar Photonics Exhibition, which was opened on October 5, 2011, attracted nearly 300 companies worldwide and set a record for the largest scale in history. With more than 10,000 visitors, it is possible to observe the enthusiasm of each business for changing business cards and chatting together. But in fact, they are more like heating each other.

Because the solar industry has come early in the winter. The second-quarter financial report of Taiwan’s solar energy plant has been announced. From Motech’s shareholding in Motech, to the Taiwan’s richest woman, Wang Xuehong’s investing Sunyang Branch, there was no exception. The total solar energy plant in Taiwan lost more than NT$5 billion in a single season. It also eats up the first quarter profit, which means that the solar energy industry that created nearly 60 billion turnover in the first half of the year was all busy.

Bear the brunt! The battery and module factory, the lowest gross profit of the solar industry, "smile curve", horizontal axis from the solar industry's most upstream polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, modules, to the most downstream system equipment, with vertical axis on the average The graphs drawn by the gross margins, the battery and module makers at the bottom of the smile curve, have the lowest gross profit, and are the most difficult solar communities to weather the cold winter.

Henning Wicht, chief solar energy analyst at iSuppli, a market research agency, took the lead in drawing a “smile” in the forum held at the 2011 Solar Photonics Symposium. Global polysilicon and silicon wafer faucet factory GCL-Poly in product This curve was also shown at the press conference that was published. Even when the solar industry was dining in private, high-level executives were talking about this curve. Because of this curve, it is enough to explain the next development of the solar energy industry: the battery and module factory at the bottom of the curve is the most difficult one in the situation.

Zhang Bingheng, general manager of Taiwan's solar cell faucet Mao Di, quoted the market adjustment agency Solarbuzz data, and pointed out that the best situation for the global inventory level in 2011 is 8GW, which is possibly 12GW, and the 2012 inventory estimate is 12GW. It is also possible to soar to 22GW.

In 2012, global demand may not even reach 20 GW, which is equivalent to the announcement of the next year, many solar energy companies do not have to play!

Whether it is to apportion production costs, clench teeth continue to start, or reduce schedules, stop production lines, start unpaid leave, the industry knows that the problem of inventory can not be easily resolved. Supply and demand are seriously out of balance. Since August of this year, there have been US solar plants and equipment factories failing to keep up with this cold wind and failing in succession. The internal view of Si Jing believes that from the fourth quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of next year, it will be the “cruel moment” in the history of solar energy.

Lin Kunyi, chairman of New Sunlight Energy, believes that the price of solar energy can reach the same value of mains electricity in 2012 and 2013. (Editor's note: Solar power price is the same as the price of existing power plant), but even if the electricity price is the same, it may not Stimulate demand, but by 2014 solar power prices will be lower than the average power plant, and demand will naturally erupt.

Than "long air"! Those who are able to integrate vertically will have a good solar demand in the winter of 2014, but before that, it would have to be longer than anyone else to get out of the trough. The most rigorous test is still behind: “In the first half of 2012, the collapse will be blown to China and Taiwan, and the bottom of the industry will last at least six months, including second and third-tier solar plants (in this wave of oversupply challenges Middle) The most difficult situation." Vicht predicted.

Due to the rapid economic boom in Europe, general investors have difficulty financing and only large-scale power plants have the ability to add solar equipment. However, the procurement model is also very different from the past.

"(Financing tightening) ordinary investors also have no patience, after investing in solar equipment, (relying on the government's purchase of solar power), etc., such as five years and ten years to recover costs; and large-scale power plants do not buy batteries, such semi-finished products, they just buy modules, However, instead of directly paying the purchase price, it will adopt a joint venture with the module factory and wait until the entire group of system equipment is built and then sold to a private equity fund and then paid to the module factory.” Familiar with the industry, people familiar with the industry say new ways to play in the solar industry.

Therefore, if Taiwan's solar cell plant does not vertically integrate module factories, it will bear the brunt of this wave of knockouts. And compared to monocrystalline silicon batteries are niche markets, focusing on polysilicon battery industry, if the hands of cash is not enough, and no module factory can cooperate in heating, it will be the most difficult to survive the next long winter .

Among them, the overcapacity situation of the solar cell plant is the most serious, and the capacity of the global battery plant is estimated to be 50 GW, which is 1.5 times more than the global demand of about 20 GW a year. The battery factory is facing the downstream module factory bargaining price. On the other side, the raw material polysilicon of the supplier silicon wafer factory on the other side has not fallen rapidly, making the battery plant a sandwich cookie.

“In the future, only the upstream (polysilicon) and the downstream (system equipment) are made on both ends, only the foundry is in between.” said Liu Shijian, vice president of global sales for GCL Solar PV system under GCL-Poly.

Winter survival! It is Taiwan’s solar cell manufacturers that employees leave unpaid leave and stop work. Because their average gross profit margin is about 3% to 5%, not even half of the 12% of the average gross profit margin of global solar cells and modules in the "smile curve" has lost the space for reducing the price to survive, and the pressure for bankruptcy is increasing.

At the solar optoelectronic exhibition site, a solar-powered equipment dealer looked for business cards everywhere. She smiled and said: “Our business in 2012 is looking for people to chat everywhere, because the module factory has already started unpaid leave. The battery plant is very good if there are five achievements in capacity utilization.” Because of oversupply, solar plants have stopped the expansion of production, even if the contract with the equipment factory, also delayed the delivery of equipment.

Unpaid leave has become an open secret in the industry. He went to another manufacturer booth that also owns battery and module factories. The manufacturer lowered his voice and told reporters: “The industry has already placed an unpaid leave. We originally had two shifts, and now There is only one shift."