Electric shortage gap will exceed 30 million kilowatts this winter and next spring

Electric shortage gap will exceed 30 million kilowatts this winter and next spring The overall level of CPI's starting downward price is one of the important factors affecting the adjustment of electricity prices. This is usually based on the CPI. The current CPI is already high, and it is expected to decline in the coming months.

Although the CPI was also relatively high before July and August of 2008 when the electricity price was raised, it reached 7.1% in June, but it was already too high and showed a downward trend. In the two to four months of the year, it was above 8% and the highest was 8.7%. However, it has dropped to 7.7% in May, and dropped to 6.3% and 4.9% in July and August respectively. Therefore, the restrictions on the increase in electricity price CPI were greatly reduced at that time.

The price increase in November 2009, from the performance of listed companies is not very bad, after all, there are 0.0973 yuan per share of earnings (the overall method), but the CPI is lower that year, 2-10 months are negative, November only It is 0.6%. Therefore, there is no big concern about the overall price level. The main factor in the increase in electricity prices that year was that there should be a substantial increase in the price of thermal coal, and adjustments should be made to reduce the cost pressure on thermal power companies. However, it is not an overall upward adjustment, but it has been adjusted upwards and downwards.

Look at the increase in the price of electricity in April this year. Although there was no loss in the first quarter of this year, it was almost a loss. The earnings per share was only 0.0093 yuan. The thermal coal price is still fluctuating at a high level. Although it is in the off-season, the coal price has not dropped significantly. After June, it will enter the peak season. If the price of electricity is not raised, the thermal power companies may go into losses again. But the concern was that CPI was going upwards at that time, reaching 5.4% in March. Just like this, when the price of electricity was increased, only the electricity prices of 15 provinces were raised, and the range was also different. The minimum electricity price per kilowatt-hour was only increased by 1.24 points.

High coal prices to promote "human" power shortage The high thermal coal price undoubtedly worsens the already difficult thermal power companies and makes the power supply situation this winter even less optimistic. On October 27, the China Electricity Council released the forecast report on the supply and demand of electricity in the first three quarters of 2011. It is predicted that the nation's largest power shortage will reach 30 million to 40 million kilowatts this winter and next spring. This conclusion exceeds the previous forecast of the Electricity Regulatory Commission. On October 20, the SERC predicts that the maximum power shortage this winter and next spring will be about 26 million kilowatts.

This means that the electricity shortage starting from this spring will last until the spring of next year, and the electricity shortage for the last year will also set a historical record. After combing the relationship between the electricity shortage and the electricity consumption of the entire society in the past two years, we discovered that this year's electricity shortage not only lasted for a long time, but also had “human” characteristics.

With the economic recovery in 2010, the entire society used 498.982 billion kWh of electricity, an increase of 14.76% year-on-year, of which industrial electricity consumption reached 309.697 billion kwh, an increase of 15.73%. The increase in industrial electricity consumption, especially the recovery of high-energy-consuming enterprises, was seen as an important reason for the power shortage last year.

However, this year's economic growth and the decline in the growth of social power consumption have led to an increase in electricity shortages. In the first three quarters of this year, the growth rate of industrial added value slowed down quarter by quarter, with an increase of 14.4% in the first quarter, 14% in the second quarter, and 13.8% in the third quarter. As the economic growth slowed down, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the society also fell. In the first three quarters, social electricity consumption increased by 12.7%, 11.7%, and 11.5%, respectively, year-on-year. However, the electricity shortage continues to exist. This year, the actual power shortage in summer peaks reached 23 million kilowatts, and electricity was used in multiple peaks. Today, peak winter peaks are approaching.

Lin Boqiang (microblogging), an energy economist and director of the Energy Economics Research Center at Xiamen University, believes that this year's power shortage is mainly influenced by “human” factors. He pointed out that in terms of installed capacity and unit utilization, theoretically, the unit utilization hours still have more than 10% room for improvement. However, due to tight coal supply and high coal prices, it has “limited” the power generation enthusiasm of thermal power companies.

High steam coal prices stabilized At the end of the third quarter to the beginning of the fourth quarter, major power plants prepared for Yanzhou Coal in the winter, and thermal coal prices in the Bohai Rim began to rise from September 7. According to the latest data released by the China Shipping Coal Network on the 2nd, the comprehensive average price of thermal coal for the 5,500-calorie kcal market for closed ports in the Bohai Rim region was reported at 853 yuan/ton, which was in line with the previous reporting period. This price is the highest price since the index was released. The comprehensive average price of thermal coal for the 5,500-kilo kcal market has risen by RMB 28/ton since the current round of rise.

According to Li Xuegang, general manager of the Qinhuangdao Coal Trading Market, from the results of the collection of data on the prices of the six ports in the Bohai Rim, the number of port specifications increased from 11 in the previous reporting period out of the 24 port specifications for this report period. By the end of the year, the number of port specifications with a flat price was reduced from 12 in the previous reporting period to 10; the port specifications with a reduced price remained at 1 in the previous reporting period.

The recent extraordinary increase in non-coking coal imports in China also indicates strong domestic thermal coal demand. According to Li Xuegang's introduction, China imported 19.12 million tons of coal in September, an increase of 25.1% year-on-year, creating a record high; including 15.23 million tons of non- coking coal imports, an increase of 4.07 million tons, an increase of 36.5%, also refreshed the history The highest monthly record of imports.

According to analysis by industry insiders, the relatively low proportion of domestic hydropower output in the near future has made thermal coal demand more robust, and thermal coal prices will continue to operate at high levels. Affected by the drought conditions in Southwest China and Guangxi, the number of hydropower utilization hours this year dropped significantly year-on-year, while in the fourth quarter it was a dry season. It is expected that hydropower will still be weak and the thermal power supply load will continue to increase. Judging from the inventory of power plants, the recent coal-fired inventories of key power generation enterprises in the country rebounded rapidly, from 64.55 million tons at the end of September to nearly 71.2 million tons on October 20.

In the winter heating season, thermal coal prices have risen again. The latest phase of the Bohai Sea thermal coal price index shows that the continued upward momentum of thermal coal prices has weakened, but prices remain high. Since the beginning of this year, the domestic electricity shortage has exceeded the previous year. The China Electric Power Enterprise Association predicts that the nation's largest power shortage will reach 30 million to 40 million kilowatts this winter and next spring. The electricity shortage in this winter and next spring seems to be a foregone conclusion. The expected increase in electricity prices in the industry may reduce the “human” power shortage. However, the expected decline in coal prices caused by the weakening of terminal demand may make it difficult to increase the price of electricity in the short term.

Electricity price or coal price?

Since the beginning of this year, the power industry has continued to bear the tremendous pressure caused by the high price of coal and rising interest rates for production operations and power supply. According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to August, the interest expense of coal-fired power generation enterprises was 47.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, which was one of the main causes of thermal power losses. Although the total profit of thermal power production enterprises was 12.2 billion yuan, it was 39.1% lower than the same period of last year. , and this year has continued negative growth in each month.

The just-concluded three quarterly report also shows that power companies are experiencing a cold winter. According to statistics from Huamhun, among the 29 thermal power companies, the net profit of 13 companies fell, and 10 companies suffered losses in the first three quarters. Huaneng International, ranked first in terms of revenue, achieved a total operating income of 99.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters of last year, which was 76.8 billion yuan in the same period of last year. In the first three quarters, it achieved a net profit of 1.41 billion yuan, more than half of the 3.116 billion yuan in the same period of last year.

It is precisely because of the lack of power generation for power companies that the industry expects to increase the price of electricity. According to relevant sources of power generation companies, if the growth rate of CPI continues to decline, the relevant authorities may consider raising the price. It was also learned that after the Development and Reform Commission raised the on-grid tariff in some regions on June 1, the gross profit margin of thermal power industry in the second quarter increased by 2.23 percentage points. Ping An Securities analyst Wang Fan believes that the follow-up coal price engulfed the profits of power generation companies, so the industry is generally looking forward to re-adjust the price.

However, the upward trend of thermal coal prices in this round has weakened. Some analysts said that the terminal impacts such as steel production cuts may be reflected after the Spring Festival next year. Once the thermal coal price falls down, the possibility of adjustment of electricity prices will be greatly reduced.

Judging from the monitoring of the Qinhuangdao seaborne coal market, the sea freight rates for major domestic routes continue to decline, while the decline in sea freight rates for port coal indicates a slowdown in demand in the coming period. After the maintenance work on the Daqin Line was completed on October 2nd, the coal inventories of Qinhuangdao, Caofeidian and other major coal shipping ports gradually recovered, the tight shipping situation of the major shipping ports was improved, and the support for the market price increase or high-level operation of thermal coal was also improved. Weakened.

Affected by the weakening of terminal demand, the coal-fired power consumption of the power plant has also continued to decline. According to statistics from Zhongneng Power Industrial Fuel Corporation, the average daily coal consumption from October 1 to 20 fell to less than 3.46 million tons, which is 280,000 tons lower than the average daily consumption level in September. According to the calculation of the coal consumption level, the available days for electric coal stocks exceeds 20 days, which is at a high level. Li Xuegang said that this situation will reduce the follow-up power companies' demand for coal-based winter storage and reduce the enthusiasm for purchasing coal. At the same time, he believes that a large number of non-coking coal imports and the inertia of import growth will dilute the demand for domestic trade coal in later coastal consumer regions and weaken the power of domestic coal price increases.